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VRC Oaks

1

MIAMI BOUND

[0.42/2.25]

[2-11-10-2-1]

2

MOONLIGHT MAID

[0.84/4.82]

[6-15-11-0-0]

3

GAMAY

[0.97/5.33]

[12-16-8-1-1]

4

VEGAS JEWEL

[0.69/2.60]

[9-7-20-0-0]

5

FOXBOROUGH

[0.75/3.00]

[6-8-8-2-0]

6

SILENT SOVEREIGN

[0.45/1.86]

[5-4-8-1-2]

7

PRESENTLY

[1.13/6.60]

[15-13-10-0-0]

8

BEAUTY BOLT

[0.66/2.26]

[19-8-32-1-2]

9

AMAZING PEACE

[0.23/1.22]

[4-5-15-6-0]

10

NEVER LISTEN

[0.72/3.00]

[10-10-14-0-2]

11

SONG BROCADE

[0.73/3.00]

[5-7-9-1-0]

12

OCEAN MISS

[-0.03/1.00]

[1-8-18-7-2]

13

APICIUS

[0.79/3.30]

[16-17-23-1-1]

14

STICK ’EM UP

[0.09/1.06]

[6-1-19-2-4]

15

VICTORY APPROACH

[0.34/1.46]

[5-8-12-7-0]

The Oaks is something of an enigma to me. It was sometimes just a matter of backing the winner of the Wakeful, but it seems that the way lots of horses are trained these days, they don't back up on the Thursday no matter how impressive their wins were. We still see some of the Wakeful winners get up, and you can be assured that they will always start close to favourite.

But let us look at the dosages of past winners. We see four of our past 10 winners with a DI between 1.35 and 1.77 which is close to the staying range we might suspect. Oddly, the VRC Derby often sees a much lower DI. Victory Approach and Silent Sovereign are probably the closest to this range, but I am not sure that either profile is ideally suited. We have seen one winner with a trivial dosage like Silent Sovereign, but their DI was 3.00 so she may not be quite right. Similarly, with Victory Approach, we have not seen a winner with more than 2 solid ratings. Rather oddly we have seen five out of the last ten winners with Professional ratings.

We saw one winner at 2.85 making a large gap between these lower ratings that winner. We would have expected a number of winners around that 2.00 mark but have not seen one for a decade. Vegas Jewel may be closest to this, but with no stamina ratings, this makes it a challenge to select her. She is however closely related to Winx who we also saw had no stamina ratings, athough we have discussed at length why this is. It may be the year that we see this change and what better family to do it.

We have seen other winners at 3.00, 3.43, 3.75 and then 4.43 and 4.54. Foxborough, Song Brocade and Never Listen match the lower of these, but Foxborough appears the best suited in terms of dosage although maybe not ideal. Our past winner at 3.00 was Jameka who also had a trivial profile. Moonlight Maid at 4.82 is not that far away from the higher range, but again with no stamina ratings must be considered a risk. A little higher than that sits Ganay who has stamina ratings in both areas, and looks well suited.

Beauty Bolt and Miami Bound both have individual ratings that look attractive with ratings in both stamina areas, but both are outside of the recent ranges. Similarly, Stick'Em Up looks to have a profile that is well suited, but the overall DI is a little low. She does look the one though that is certainly likely to run 2500m.

Apicius looks to match the DI of recent winners. She has stamina ratings in both areas, although we have not seen a winner with only a single rating in both. She also has three ratings over 10 which we also saw in past winner Kirramosa but she was to have only one solid rating.

It does look a very difficult race, but Foxborough might be the one that could add value to the multiples.