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dosageprofile.com

The home of thoroughbred dosages in Australia

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VRC Derby

1

SHADOW HERO

[0.75/4.09]

[5-14-7-1-1]

2

SOUL PATCH

[1.03/8.00]

[9-19-8-0-0]

3

THOUGHT OF THAT

[0.38/2.00]

[2-15-22-3-0]

4

WARNING

[0.27/1.40]

[3-8-13-6-0]

5

SERIOUS LIAISON

[0.80/4.00]

[4-8-8-0-0]

6

HUNTLY CASTLE

[1.11/9.86]

[11-21-5-1-0]

7

INDEPENDENT ROAD

[0.73/3.00]

[6-7-13-0-0]

8

LONG JACK

[0.03/0.94]

[2-4-21-7-0]

9

CRAFTMANSHIP

[0.41/1.84]

[9-13-13-5-4]

10

SOUTHERN MOON

[0.36/1.80]

[2-7-18-1-0]

11

RELUCENT

[0.48/1.88]

[12-11-14-5-4]

12

HE IS

[0.67/4.14]

[2-11-3-1-1]

13

TRANSLATOR

[0.82/4.07]

[9-17-9-2-1]

14

NAVARRE

[0.97/5.00]

[10-12-6-1-1]

15

SIGN SEAL DELIVER

[0.00/1.07]

[1-5-17-3-2]

16

LUCKY EDWARD

[0.92/6.00]

[7-20-8-1-0]

I am a fan of the Derby in spite of the regular negative comments about it. Let's not dwell on those thoughts though and try to find a winner.

Past winners have shown us that the race seems to be in a bit of a time of change. Over the last decade we have seen winners with dosage profiles from 0.68 to 3.95. In fact two of the last three winners have had a DI of 3.50 and 3.95. Possibly we have some influences that will show out in time to come, as it often stamina ratings that we are slower to classify, but it is just as likely that we aren't seeing many locally bred staying types. Out of the last 10 winners we have seen four with a DI under 1.00 which means that Long Jack must be considered a chance. Three winners have had a DI between 1.30 and 1.53 so this brings Warning in and he probably looks our favoured way. We have also seen three winners at 3.00, 3.50 and 3.95 so it would not be a surprise to see horses like Shadow Hero, Serious Liaison and Translator give a showing.