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The Stradbroke

1

TREKKING

[0.60/2.13]

[12-7-30-1-0]

2

KEMENTARI

[0.77/4.33]

[9-23-14-0-2]

3

NICCANOVA

[0.73/2.75]

[8-7-14-1-0]

4

RANIER

[0.74/4.56]

[7-28-12-1-2]

5

VICTOREM

[1.39/11.00]

[20-10-6-0-0]

6

TYZONE

[1.03/5.67]

[10-12-7-1-0]

7

CRACK ME UP

[0.92/4.54]

[10-13-13-0-0]

8

VEGA ONE

[0.58/3.36]

[1-12-11-0-0]

9

CHIEF IRONSIDE

[0.05/0.91]

[3-2-11-5-1]

10

GRAFF

[0.65/2.08]

[6-2-11-1-0]

11

DEEP IMAGE

[1.14/7.33]

[19-19-12-0-0]

12

WINTER BRIDE

[1.00/4.20]

[10-6-10-0-0]

13

MADAM ROUGE

[1.10/5.00]

[13-7-10-0-0]

14

OUTBACK BARBIE

[1.46/13.00]

[17-8-2-1-0]

15

BAM’S ON FIRE

[0.60/2.33]

[6-8-14-2-0]

16

DAWN PASSAGE

[0.28/1.57]

[1-6-8-3-0]

17

HIGHTAIL

[1.19/9.67]

[6-7-3-0-0]

18

EXHILARATES

[1.00/4.43]

[16-11-8-1-2]

19e

BACCARAT BABY

[0.96/8.33]

[5-17-6-0-0]

20e

BRAVE SONG

[0.75/2.69]

[7-4-13-0-0]

21e

BANDIPUR

[0.90/4.88]

[12-22-15-1-0]

22e

MILITARY ZONE

[0.54/2.20]

[4-7-11-2-0]

23e

DELECTATION GIRL

[0.58/3.89]

[0-13-9-0-0]

While the JJ Atkins looks an impressive field, I am a bit disappointed in the Stradbroke. Obviously there are a lot of factors that have contributed this year, and maybe it is a race that will not reflect the long and prestigious history of past glories.

It looks a really tough race and I would not be surprised if it was won by a roughie. But let us look at history, and of course we see last year's winner Trekking looking to become the first horse since Black Piranha in 2009 and 2010 to win back to back. Before that it was Rough Habit in 1991 and 1992, so it seems that it happens every ten years odd, so maybe this is the year. He is in good form and by far the best credentialled horse in the race so he cannot be dismissed readily. With a similar profile we see Graff whose form is moderate but he is drawn well and doesn't look that badly weighted so he could be one at odds for the multiples.

We have seen a couple of winners with lower dosages, so Chief Ironside and Dawn Passage come into calculations. We see most of our past winners though come from the range of around 3.00 to 4.00 and we actually see relatively few in this range this year. Niccanova looks fairly close to these, while Vega One isn't that far away either. One winner had a DI of 5.86 so we can easily make a case for Tyzone if you like him.

I think Trekking is the best horse in the race and should be in the finish even though he has to give a fair bit of weight to the others. A little bit of luck in running will make all the difference. Dawn Passage is the obvious danger, but Niccanova and Graff could be the ones to give some real value to the result.