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The home of thoroughbred dosages in Australia

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Some of our previous assessments

Doomben 10000

What do we make of this years' race?  Past history may be misleading with the change in distance, but to date it hasn't made too much difference so will continue to use it as a guide.  As we would expect, the past winners have often shown a large speed bias, with the majority of recent winners having a dosage index between 4.40 and 4.85.  This year it is The Bostonian that sits nicely within that range so he must be considered a strong chance.  Havasay is also within this range but his profile looks less suited than the others.  Next we have a group of winners in the 2.70 to 3.00 range which sees Easy Eddie come in with his chance.  We have also seen a winner with a dosage of 2.11 which means that the unlucky Osborne Bulls looks well suited.

I am confident that the winner will come from these three.

RESULT - The Bostonian won at $41 from Osborne Bull

Doomben Cup

So what do dosages of past winners tell us about this year's race.  We have seen a few key ranges in recent years, with the first of these in the true staying range around 0.60.  No runners this year reflect this range, although emergency Sixties Groove is the closest.  Next we see winners around 1.20, and in fact three winners have had a dosage index between 1.18 and 1.29.  Life Less Ordinary, Hallelujah Boy and Youngstar are the closest to this range, and of these I think that Hallelujah Boy looks like his profile matches the past winners most closely.  It is that runner that I have on top.  Next we have winners at 2.17, 2.83, 3.86 and 4.71 so quite a range in these.  Gem Song, On The Rocks and Kenedna probably look best in these ranges.

Overall I think Hallelujah Boy looks a good chance, and his chances would not be hurt by a little more rain.  He is fit and will likely race handy although his wide barrier draw is not a help so a lot will depend on how easily he finds a spot in running.  But of course he is now not running, so where does that leave us?  I think that there will be value in the multiples.  Probably the two best in my view are Life Less Ordinary and the 3yo Gem Song, with Kenedna not too far away.

RESULT - Six horses were mentioned here as being suited.  These included the first four home, and the dividend on that was a little over $17500.

Winx Stakes

The standout runner this year is Avilius and I expect him to win. He is a class horse, and in spite of a good quality field, he looks the standout. We have not seen a winner with a DI under 2.08 which suggests a few of these might struggle over the 1400m.  Perhaps the next closest to recent winners is Samadoubt as we have seen Pinwheel (4.20) and Metal Bender (4.71) with dosages close to his. At any old odds, he could be a good one for the multiples.

RESULT - Samadoubt won at $41

Memsie Stakes

The runners who match the higher dosages of past winners include Sesar, again, and Scales Of Justice. The majority of winners have a dosage index around 2.00 so the enigmatic So Si Bon looks a real chance to me, and is a great each way chance at good odds.  He is also by the 2010 winner, So You Think, so his heritage is not in doubt.  As an older horse, he may just be coming to his best.

RESULT - Scales Of Justice beat So Si Bon with the odds on favourite, Alizee who we did not rate a winning chance running third.

Chelmsford Stakes

 ....last start upset winner Samadoubt again among the chances. Avilius looks the testing material and the class runner, but he is no winx. Unforgotten and Girl Tuesday look to be the value in the race and I think that there could be a profit to be made including these in multiples.

RESULT - Samadoubt beat Avilius and Girl Tuesday