dosageprofile.com

The 2022 field really looks like one of our weakest we have seen in some time. Everything I see points to the favourite winning. In terms of dosage we are seeing a return to the true stamina pedigrees that used to dominate the field in a time when it was full of handicappers. Few of the runners are really up to the quality of wfa and we do not see the Cox Plate formline which has stood a lot of local winners in such good stead coming to the fore this year. The Caulfield Cup looks one of the strongest local form lines and quite surprisingly we are seeing a few Sydney staying formlines reappearing. I think this points to an influx of European stayers into the local market. One important comment on that is that it appears only the imported stayers that have raced at WFA level have been able to win the Melbourne Cup. Deauville Legend looks the winner to me. His overseas form is excellent and his dosage profile matches those Irish imports who have had their first run to win the Cup. There are a lot that could fill a place at big odds, and I have been quite keen on the performances of some of the locals. I think Vow And Declare might give a bold showing but we have never only seen one horse win two Melbourne Cups that were not back to back and that was the star galloper Peter Pan. Even then, he had only a one year break in his wins, while Vow And Declare would enter a whole new realm with his last victory in 2019. I think Yount Werther and Smokin' Romans could run well, while Hoo Ya Mal is a bit of a mystery and his below average performance in the St Leger might prove to be just a hiccup and best forgotten. Without a Fight might be another of the imports who could put in a bold showing, although his overseas racing has been not at the level we usually see of past winners.

One other thing to mention is that we need to update some of our chef-de-race list as there are certainly some instances where there are especially stamina influences not being accounted for. You will see an asterix against those in particular that I think have stallions close up in their pedigree that deserve classification.