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Melbourne Cup 2020

1

ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)

[0.37/1.31]

[12-7-21-12-0]

2

AVILIUS (GB)

[0.50/2.07]

[7-9-30-0-0]

3

VOW AND DECLARE

[1.00/5.67]

[6-8-6-0-0]

4

MASTER OF REALITY

[-0.23/0.67]

[1-3-16-8-2]

5

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

[-0.07/0.71]

[3-2-15-10-0]

6

TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)

[0.00/0.93]

[1-4-15-6-0]

7

VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)

[0.00/1.21]

[1-7-19-1-4]

8

MUSTAJEER

[0.38/1.67]

[2-2-12-0-0]

9

STRATUM ALBION (GB)

[-0.25/0.55]

[1-0-15-8-0]

10

DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)

[0.04/0.92]

[2-3-13-6-0]

11

FINCHE

[0.11/0.96]

[6-7-19-14-0]

12

PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

13

SURPRISE BABY (NZ)

[0.47/2.58]

[1-14-19-0-0]

14

KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)

[0.04/0.86]

[3-3-12-8-0]

15

RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)

[0.00/0.86]

[3-4-23-10-0]

16

STEEL PRINCE

[0.10/1.05]

[3-6-25-8-0]

17

THE CHOSEN ONE

[0.37/1.97]

[6-15-19-2-4]

18

ASHRUN (FR)

[-0.32/0.52]

[1-0-13-7-1]

19

WARNING

[0.27/1.40]

[3-8-13-6-0]

20

ETAH JAMES (NZ)

[0.32/1.44]

[3-5-10-4-0]

21

TIGER MOTH (IRE)

[-0.09/0.66]

[4-1-17-12-0]

22

OCEANEX (NZ)

[0.34/2.05]

[2-12-15-1-2]

23

MIAMI BOUND (NZ)

[0.23/1.50]

[2-11-10-6-1]

24

PERSAN

[0.93/6.00]

[7-15-4-1-1]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is that time of the year again and another intriguing Cup. Again, the race is dominated by the Northern Hemisphere bred horses, but at least this year most have disclosed form locally which is always a big help. It also looks like the overseas horses have the edge on the locals. The time has come to pick a winner, so what can dosages tell us about this year's race?

Looking over the last decade of results, we see that it too is dominated by overseas bred horses. The only two local winners in the last decade are Vow And Declare and Shocking. I doubt if the form of Vow And Declare is strong enough to see him win this year, and I also cannot see the farcical pace of last year's race again. But anyway, on to dosages.

The first key range in the past decade is those with a DI between 0.55 and 0.78 which is a fairly serious staying profile as we may suspect in our major staying race. This year sees a few in this range including Sir Dragonet, Russian Camelot, Tiger Moth, Ashrun, Stratum Albion, Prince Of Arran and Master Of Reality. I think that the two that stand out in this range are Sir Dragonet and Russian Camelot.

Next we have the range of 1.00 to 1.22 and here we have Verry Elleegant, Finche, Dashing Willoughby and Steel Prince. The best of these in terms of matching most closely to past winners is Steel Prince who I expect will put in a good run at long odds. He was only beaten just over 2 lengths last year and arguably is in better form this year with one more run under his belt going into the race. Definitely the best of the roughies in my view.

We had one winner at 1.46 and one at 1.84 which bring in Miami Bound, Warning, and Etah James. Anthony Van Dyck sits a little between these and the lower range so I would not be ruling him out and he must be considered among the top chances for the race. It is hard to fault anything he has done so far and his profile is very similar to that of Prince Of Penzance.

Last year of course we had Vow And Declare and we have a few ways of looking at his profile. Firstly it is a trivial one with no rating over 10 so perhaps we can consider this type in the future. Secondly, we see his sire as Declaration Of War, a potential stamina influence that would hugely impact his dosage profile should he ever be classified as a chef-de-race. It could also be that the slow pace of last years race that saw a dozen horses finish within a few lengths of the winner might need a runner with more of a speed focus. In that case, it could bring Persan into the mix.

Overall, I have Russian Camelot and Sir Dragonet as my main chances just ahead of Anthony Van Dyck who I am not sure is all that well weighted. There are a lot of chances and it would not surprise if any of about a dozen horses win. One that I do like at long odds is Steel Prince and he should give a sight with a light weight and good form going into the race.  

A final word of caution for those having a bet this year. Throughout history we have seen that the Cups run on the "ten" years like 2010, 2020 etc have often had a remarkable story attached to them. It started with the original "dream Cup'' of 1860 from memory and so many other remarkable coincidences on these years. Maybe 2020 alone is enough with the coronavirus, but if you have a premonition, this is the year to be paying attention to it.