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The home of thoroughbred dosages in Australia

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Melbourne Cup

 

1

CROSS COUNTER

[0.13/1.00]

[5-5-18-10-0]

2

MER DE GLACE

[0.40/1.40]

[7-0-21-2-0]

3

MASTER OF REALITY

[-0.23/0.67]

[1-3-16-8-2]

4

MIRAGE DANCER

[0.10/1.07]

[2-6-15-7-0]

5

SOUTHERN FRANCE

[0.17/0.96]

[9-2-23-12-0]

6

HUNTING HORN

[0.19/1.40]

[2-13-12-8-1]

7

LATROBE

[0.08/1.06]

[2-7-19-8-0]

8

MUSTAJEER

[0.38/1.67]

[2-2-12-0-0]

9

ROSTROPOVICH

[0.31/1.21]

[7-3-15-7-0]

10

TWILIGHT PAYMENT

[0.00/0.93]

[1-4-15-6-0]

11

FINCHE

[0.11/0.96]

[6-7-19-14-0]

12

PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

13

RAYMOND TUSK

[0.16/1.27]

[3-8-34-4-1]

14

DOWNDRAFT

[0.00/0.76]

[4-1-16-9-0]

15

MAGIC WAND

[-0.05/0.77]

[3-4-19-12-0]

16

NEUFBOSC (FR)

[0.75/5.67]

[1-13-6-0-0]

17

SOUND

[0.44/1.67]

[3-1-12-0-0]

18

SURPRISE BABY

[0.47/2.48]

[1-14-19-0-0]

19

CONSTANTINOPLE

[0.08/0.96]

[5-6-25-12-0]

20

IL PARADISO

[0.15/1.13]

[4-11-21-12-0]

21

STEEL PRINCE

[0.10/1.05]

[3-6-25-8-0]

22

THE CHOSEN ONE

[0.37/1.97]

[6-15-19-2-4]

23

VOW AND DECLARE

[1.00/5.67]

[6-8-6-0-0]

24

YOUNGSTAR

[0.08/1.13]

[3-6-33-4-2]

The Melbourne Cup field this year could well the best we have ever seen. Even though we tend to discount overseas runners, those days are gone with some of these runners right up with the best in the world. Sadly, the locally bred runners look pretty well outclassed. The last decade has seen a real change in the nature of the race as overseas horses dominate.  We saw that the odd imports that won had dosages around the 1.50 mark but then saw a trend towards those overseas horses that had been in Australia for a year or so become the ones to watch. These had traditional staying profiles and then last year we saw Cross Counter, having his first run here winning with that same profile. The most likely scenario is that the nature of the race has changed to much better suit the overseas horses. There is also the likelihood that overseas trainers now have the experience in what is required to win around Flemington on the first Tuesday in November. This really shapes as the race that will tell us where the next decade is likely to head. 

Using the past decade of results, we have seen three winners with a DI between 0.50 and 0.80, truly in the staying range. Magic Wand appeals to me as the strongest in this range, although Downdraft cannot be dismissed.

Four winners have a DI between 1.00 and 1.20. Last year's winner, Cross Counter must be considered a strong chance in this range along with Constantinople.

Two winners have been 1.46 and 1.84 which suits Mer De Glace who on the strength of his win in the Caulfield Cup, and the Japanese dominance, he appeals as the hardest to beat.

I think the winner will come from these four.