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Eye Liner Stakes 2020

1

DEEP IMAGE

[1.14/7.33]

[19-19-12-0-0]

2

BANDIPUR

[0.90/4.88]

[12-22-15-1-0]

3

TARZAN

[1.07/5.22]

[11-8-9-0-0]

4

BOOMSARA

[1.08/5.00]

[10-7-6-1-0]

5

PENNINO

[0.70/2.16]

[10-5-11-4-0]

6

MISHANI HUSTLER

[1.21/6.00]

[14-7-6-1-0]

7

FIERY HEIGHTS

[0.73/3.29]

[6-10-14-0-0]

8

MONSIEUR GUSTAVE

[0.44/2.10]

[8-14-21-1-4]

9

MR BELLAGIO

[0.64/4.09]

[2-17-7-1-1]

10

HARD STRIDE

[0.45/1.75]

[4-2-16-0-0]

11

SHARPE HUSSLER

[0.93/4.44]

[9-12-7-2-0]

12

WINTER PASSAGE

[1.32/6.56]

[20-6-7-1-0]

13

ATOUCHMORE

[0.85/3.84]

[12-15-19-0-0]

14

I DREAM OF GREEN

[0.75/2.50]

[9-7-8-4-0]

When is the Eye Liner not the Eye Liner? In 2020 when it is being run over 1200m instead of the 1350m that it moved to in 2007. Obviously coronavirus has been behind the decision but it seems a little of a strange one to me. Then again, the Ipswich carnival has moved from early June to late July and back again over the years so perhaps the results are not as consistent as we would expect in any case. That is even not forgetting that it is a rather moderate Listed race despite being named after one of the great 2yo's.

Interestingly the Gai Waterhouse Classic has retained the same distance so again this makes me wonder about the decision. What we find very interesting is that the dosage profile of winners of both races are quite different. They are held on the same day at the same track, usually over the same distance, yet the Eye Liner for open horses has a lower average dosage index than the Gai Waterhouse for the fillies and mares.

Still it is the same track and I am guessing that even over the 1200m that there will be a lot of pressure on in the race so it might make it a stern test. I have decided to use the past figures to see if the same type will win this year, or whether the change in distance (and date) will have a significant impact.

Based on history, the winners of the Eye Liner have dosages that are lower than I would have expected for races at Ipswich being a tight track that favours speed horses in general. It is possible that the speedier types set up the race for a stronger one at the end. We see that we have had two winners with a DI under 2.00, and two more with a DI around 2.00 including 2017 winner Monsieur Guistave. His record fresh isn't that good, and his peak was a couple of years back, so I think he has a lot of work to do to win. No dual winner of the race has ever won in non-consecutive years, so it would seem that history is against him. That makes Pennino a strong chance in the race in this range. By far most winners have come with a DI in the 3.00 to 4.00 range. Fiery Heights and Atouchmore fit here. Next we see one winner at 5.67 so perhaps this is the range that could suit the reduction in distance. For me, I think a few dollars on Pennino at generous odds should give you a sight.