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Doomben Cup

1

BIG DUKE

[0.38/1.91]

[2-4-9-0-1]

2

LIFE LESS ORDINARY

[0.28/1.24]

[7-3-22-6-0]

3

MISTER SEA WOLF

[0.25/1.67]

[0-4-7-1-0]

4

RED ALTO

[0.30/1.38]

[8-5-32-4-1]

5

ON THE ROCKS

[0.94/4.54]

[11-13-11-1-0]

6

ARCHEDEMUS

[0.47/2.45]

[2-14-22-0-0]

7

PRIORITISE

[0.39/1.32]

[9-6-11-10-0]

8

TALLY

[0.29/1.38]

[5-3-28-2-0]

9

HALLELUJAH BOY

[0.38/1.29]

[4-0-10-2-0]

10

FIERCE IMPACT

[0.29/1.43]

[3-4-19-2-0]

11

SHILLELAGH

[0.20/1.76]

[3-15-15-1-6]

12

KENEDNA

[1.06/4.82]

[13-8-11-0-0]

13

YOUNGSTAR

[0.08/1.13]

[3-6-33-4-2]

14

SAVVY COUP

[0.45/1.75]

[12-9-14-5-4]

15

LUVALUVA

[0.36/1.77]

[3-13-14-6-0]

16

GEM SONG

[0.58/2.20]

[8-8-23-1-0]

17e

SIXTIES GROOVE

[0.14/0.87]

[3-0-7-4-0]

18e

ORDER AGAIN

[0.75/3.80]

[4-10-10-0-0]

One of the big races for the Winter in Brisbane, and while it isn't the best field ever assembled, it does look a decent and well matched field.  It is likely to be a very competitive race, and I think that luck in running will play a big role.  

Recent history reflects an interesting pattern in this race, and I have always felt that Doomben is a unique racecourse and that horses either run well there or they don't.  The great Chief De Beers is a great example.  It really is a bit of an odd course in that even though it is tight, with a relatively small straight, back markers often get their chance off a hot speed.  So what do dosages of past winners tell us about this year's race.  We have seen a few key ranges in recent years, with the first of these in the true staying range around 0.60.  No runners this year reflect this range, although emergency Sixties Groove is the closest.  Next we see winners around 1.20, and in fact three winners have had a dosage index between 1.18 and 1.29.  Life Less Ordinary, Hallelujah Boy and Youngstar are the closest to this range, and of these I think that Hallelujah Boy looks like his profile matches the past winners most closely.  It is that runner that I have on top.  Next we have winners at 2.17, 2.83, 3.86 and 4.71 so quite a range in these.  Gem Song, On The Rocks and Kenedna probably look best in these ranges.

Overall I think Hallelujah Boy looks a good chance, and his chances would not be hurt by a little more rain.  He is fit and will likely race handy although his wide barrier draw is not a help so a lot will depend on how easily he finds a spot in running.  But of course he is now not running, so where does that leave us?  I think that there will be value in the multiples.  Probably the two best in my view are Life Less Ordinary and the 3yo Gem Song, with Kenedna not too far away.

Six horses were mentioned here as being suited.  These included the first four home, and the dividend on that was a little over $17500.  Not a bad result.