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The home of thoroughbred dosages in Australia

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Cox Plate

1

KOLDING (NZ)

[0.18/1.62]

[1-13-14-3-3]

2

HUMIDOR (NZ)

[-0.08/0.90]

[3-5-22-6-4]

3

FIERCE IMPACT (JPN)

[0.29/1.43]

[3-4-19-2-0]

4

MASTER OF WINE (GER)

[0.06/0.83]

[5-0-19-8-0]

5

MUGATOO (IRE)

[0.30/1.22]

[6-3-15-6-0]

6

ASPETAR (FR)

[-0.10/0.88]

[1-9-8-10-2]

7

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

[-0.07/0.71]

[3-2-15-10-0]

8

MAGIC WAND (IRE)

[-0.05/0.77]

[3-4-19-12-0]

9

ARCADIA QUEEN

[0.75/3.92]

[6-15-9-1-1]

10

NETTOYER

[1.03/11.80]

[6-22-3-1-0]

11

RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)

[0.00/0.86]

[3-4-23-10-0]

12

ARMORY (IRE)

[0.13/1.09]

[4-11-20-13-0]

13

PROBABEEL (NZ)

[0.48/1.97]

[11-13-13-5-4]

14

GRANDSLAM

[0.88/3.00]

[9-5-8-2-0]

15e

BUCKHURST (IRE)

[0.03/0.94]

[3-3-17-6-1]

The Cox Plate is one of my favourite races but this year looks a bit of a mystery to me. We cannot comment on the race without noting that there are only three locally bred horses in the race. Three more are NZ bred so it is a real indictment I think on Australian breeding. Apart from Adelaide and Lys Gracieux though we have not seen a Northern Hemisphere bred winner since Makybe Diva in 2005. Before that we had to go back to The Night Patrol in 1924 so it adds a new dimension to the race this year.

It probably would not come as a great shock if any of the runners were to win, but we will try our best to narrow it down a little. Firstly, the NH bred are a bit of an enigma. I am a great Russian Camelot fan, and would like to think that he could win. Adelaide of course was a NH 3yo like Russian Camelot and Armory so we could imagine these having a great chance. I would not be surprised if either won, but I have a query as to how closely their profiles match that of Adelaide [-0.17/0.64]. Certainly in the right staying range but enough of a varience to have a query over them.

Rather oddly Winx and Shamus Award have won five of the last seven Cox Plates and had no stamina ratings. We see that all runners this year have stamina ratings. In the last 20 years we have only seen a handful win with ratings in only one stamina category, and none of those have had a rating above 6. Maybe the international focus will change that, and Lys Gracieux was the first runner to win with only solid ratings since Northerly in 2002. 

Going out on a limb, I think that the two runners who look to have dosage profiles most closely matching past winners are Humidor and Arcadia Queen. Buckhurst is also close, but will probably not get a start. Two others who aren't far away are Fierce Impact and Probabeel, A really intriguing race but it seems that we might be seeing the start of a NH domination of our major Spring races over coming years. Moonee Valley though might be the one place that our horses get their chance to upset the invaders.