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The home of thoroughbred dosages in Australia

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Caulfield Cup

1

HARTNELL

[0.26/1.13]

[7-2-18-7-0]

2

MIRAGE DANCER

[0.10/1.07]

[2-6-15-7-0]

3

MER DE GLACE

[0.40/1.40]

[7-0-21-2-0]

4

MUSTAJEER

[0.38/1.67]

[2-2-12-0-0]

5

ROSTROPOVICH

[0.31/1.21]

[7-3-15-7-0]

6

FINCHE

[0.11/0.96]

[6-7-19-14-0]

7

GOLD MOUNT

[0.64/3.80]

[2-20-13-1-0]

8

RED VERDON

[0.59/1.91]

[9-5-14-4-0]

9

ANGEL OF TRUTH

[0.67/3.50]

[2-8-8-0-0]

10

BIG DUKE

[0.38/1.91]

[2-4-9-0-1]

11

CONSTANTINOPLE

[0.08/0.96]

[5-6-25-12-0]

12

MR QUICKIE

[1.43/11.00]

[18-7-5-0-0]

13

CROWN PROSECUTOR

[1.03/4.23]

[14-9-9-2-0]

14

VOW AND DECLARE

[1.00/5.67]

[6-8-6-0-0]

15

BRIMHAM ROCKS

[0.67/2.59]

[12-15-21-4-0]

16

THE CHOSEN ONE

[0.37/1.97]

[6-15-19-2-4]

17

QAFILA

[1.03/5.18]

[12-11-11-0-0]

18

WOLFE

[0.03/0.88]

[3-0-24-5-0]

19e

SOUND

[0.44/1.67]

[3-1-12-0-0]

20e

NEUFBOSC

[0.75/5.67]

[1-13-6-0-0]

21e

TRUE SELF

[-0.17/0.60]

[4-1-8-9-2]

22e

PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

I love Sping racing and the major handicaps have always had a big attraction. These often are wide open races with lots of chances, so it is a challenge to try and find a winner. This year sees a bit of a worrying trend in that a lot of imports are now kicking off their Melbourne Cup campaign here again changing the nature of both this and the Cup. It will prbably take us a couple of years to see what impact this will have on how visitors adjust to local conditions. It also makes it that much harder for a local horse to get a start in both races but that is another story.

Dosages of past winners show us a couple of interesting patterns. First up, five of the past ten winners have had a DI between 1.26 and 1.53. This is a very narrow range and obviously where we should be looking this year as well. The Japanese horse, Mer De Glace and Rostropovich are the ones in this range with Mer De Glace the standout. Interestingly Best Solution last year was the first winner in this range since Admire Rakti, another Japanese horse in 2014. Maybe we have seen a bit of a trend away from this range but Mer De Glace probably still comes out on top in spite of his wide draw. We saw Viewed win a decade ago with a DI of 1.90 so Red Verdon, Big Duke and The Chosen One fit this range. Big Duke does not look quite right in terms of his individual ratings so the other two appear more likely.

Rather surprisingly we have see winners with DI's of 3.00, 3.89, 5.40 and 7.31 so we can see winners that aren't in traditional staying ranges as we could suspect in a handicap. Gold Mount, Vow And Declare and emergency Neufbosc match these with Gold Mount looking the closest.